{
 "bars": {
  "T0": {
   "closures": {
    "data": 0.0,
    "shares": 0.0
   },
   "seed_table": {
    "t2_ratio_yr20": {
     "agree": true,
     "s11": 1.8931,
     "s7": 1.924619
    },
    "t3_self_funded": {
     "agree": true,
     "s11": 0.822593,
     "s7": 0.82217
    },
    "t4_ratio_yr15": {
     "agree": true,
     "s11": 0.739464,
     "s7": 0.739464
    },
    "t5_catchup": {
     "agree": true,
     "s11": 0.763441,
     "s7": 0.775205
    }
   },
   "test": "closures exact; seeds 7+11 headlines within 5%; v6.4 saving 26.1%\u00b13pp",
   "v64_saving": 0.260536,
   "verdict": "PASS"
  },
  "T1": {
   "test": "pioneer per-capita cumulative benefit \u22651.25\u00d7 majority at yr20 in \u22653 of 4 vectors",
   "values": {
    "firm": 1.146374,
    "gov": 2.059699,
    "influence": 2.711157,
    "science": 1.49977
   },
   "vectors_passing": 3,
   "verdict": "PASS"
  },
  "T2": {
   "ablation_A": 1.369289,
   "ablation_AB": 1.139047,
   "ablation_AB_s11": 1.1141,
   "ablation_B": 1.420616,
   "baseline": 1.924619,
   "outside_boost": 1.453787,
   "seed11": 1.8931,
   "test": "adopted/outside discoveries per inst \u22651.5\u00d7 at yr20; A+B ablation \u22641.15\u00d7",
   "verdict": "PASS"
  },
  "T3": {
   "cv_never": 0.712877,
   "cv_pioneer": 0.349151,
   "debt_service_share_outside": 0.18906,
   "note": "original verdict displayed the end-of-run cumulative (0.82) as the yr-15 number; bar now scored on the yr-15 flow share (the momentum reading the bar registered), with the stricter cumulative shown",
   "self_funded_end_of_run": 0.82217,
   "self_funded_yr15_cum": 0.284682,
   "self_funded_yr15_flow": 0.735007,
   "test": "self-funded \u226550% by yr15 (re-scored July 10 on yr-15 readings, v4 D4; flow = share of month-168-179 funding, cum = cumulative-to-yr15); adopted CV \u22640.5\u00d7 outside",
   "verdict": "PASS"
  },
  "T4": {
   "cum_save_early_pc": 193.411822,
   "cum_save_late_pc": 110.913871,
   "late_catchup_months": 22.625,
   "quality_gap_yr50": 0.135353,
   "ratio_yr15": 0.739464,
   "test": "early \u22640.85\u00d7 non-adopted cost/pt at yr15; late closes 90% of rate gap \u226496mo; stock gap reported",
   "v64_saving": 0.260536,
   "verdict": "PASS"
  },
  "T5": {
   "a_incentive": {
    "ok": true,
    "pc": {
     "early": 1.145541,
     "laggard": 0.616612,
     "majority": 0.92165,
     "pioneer": 1.234475
    }
   },
   "a_seed11_ratio": 1.361096,
   "alt_weights": {
    "t5_catchup_majority": 0.771786,
    "t5_infl_pc_yr20": {
     "early": 1.147142,
     "laggard": 0.614945,
     "majority": 0.919917,
     "pioneer": 1.238431
    },
    "t5_pioneer_agg_share_final": 0.120485,
    "t5_wealthy_prem_final": 1.255422
   },
   "b_catchup": {
    "note": "July 10 re-score (v4 D4): registered window is mid-join+10yr (m258); the original run mis-indexed it to m378 and reported that value",
    "ok": false,
    "reach80_month": 278.0,
    "value": 0.775205,
    "value_lastjoiner_10yr": 0.825084,
    "value_m378_legacy": 0.895334
   },
   "c_no_entrench": {
    "agg_share": 0.120312,
    "declining": true,
    "ok": true,
    "pop_share": 0.117647
   },
   "d_wealthy": {
    "declining": true,
    "ok": true,
    "prem_final": 0.802169,
    "prem_yr20": 1.204154,
    "route_share_final": 0.004006,
    "scale_robustness": {
     "x0.5": {
      "declining": true,
      "prem_final": 0.601084,
      "prem_yr20": 0.802077
     },
     "x2.0": {
      "declining": true,
      "prem_final": 1.204337,
      "prem_yr20": 2.008308
     }
    },
    "wealth_vs_outside_cf": 0.088569
   },
   "lockin_worst": {
    "firm_catchup_ratio": 1.001407,
    "t5_catchup_majority": 0.775205,
    "t5_pioneer_agg_share_final": 0.120312
   },
   "test": "two-sided: (a) pioneer \u22651.25\u00d7 majority pc at yr20; (b) majority \u226580% of pioneer within 10yr of joining; (c) pioneer agg share \u22641.5\u00d7 pop share at yr50 and declining; (d) wealthy premium \u22641.5\u00d7 and declining",
   "verdict": "FAIL"
  },
  "T6": {
   "K_diff": {
    "20": 22600.922982,
    "30": 74240.721668,
    "40": 158676.428422,
    "50": 255109.961559
   },
   "Q_diff": {
    "20": 0.17211,
    "30": 0.277978,
    "40": 0.390513,
    "50": 0.47385
   },
   "income_diff": {
    "20": 0.447264,
    "30": 0.563199,
    "40": 0.63178,
    "50": 0.702461
   },
   "income_ratio_nuance": {
    "20": 1.366857,
    "30": 1.418197,
    "40": 1.424689,
    "50": 1.427478
   },
   "monotone": true,
   "test": "adopter-vs-never gaps (income, knowledge, service quality) grow monotonically after yr20",
   "verdict": "PASS"
  },
  "T7": {
   "S_yr30_s11": 0.849998,
   "S_yr30_s7": 0.849998,
   "ordering_pioneer_ge_majority": {
    "gov": 2.059699,
    "influence": 2.810272,
    "ok": true,
    "science": 1.74263
   },
   "path": {
    "10": 0.603205,
    "15": 0.833619,
    "20": 0.849225,
    "30": 0.849998,
    "40": 0.85,
    "5": 0.126332,
    "50": 0.85
   },
   "test": "endogenous adoption reaches 60\u201395% by yr30; pioneer payoff ordering preserved",
   "verdict": "PASS"
  }
 },
 "params": {
  "K0": 100.0,
  "S0_endog": 0.02,
  "S_cap_endog": 0.85,
  "adm_in": 0.01,
  "adm_out": 0.12,
  "bonus": 0.3,
  "cap_mult": 2.0,
  "conv_in": 0.1,
  "conv_out": 0.015,
  "d_age": 0.02,
  "d_cost": 0.01,
  "debt_r": 0.04,
  "dep_wage": 0.004167,
  "exp_cost": 0.9,
  "fam_pop_share": 0.001,
  "fam_wealth_total": 6.0,
  "floor_val": 0.1,
  "g_outside": 0.01,
  "gov_ramp": 24,
  "grant_base": 1.0,
  "grant_len": 24,
  "grant_p": 0.2,
  "h0_registry": 5000.0,
  "hazard": 0.05,
  "k_knowledge": 0.05,
  "lock_in": 0.0,
  "margin": 0.15,
  "mort": 0.00125,
  "mort_start": 120,
  "n_fam": 200,
  "n_firm": 500,
  "n_gov": 40,
  "n_inst": 4000,
  "overhead": 0.3,
  "p_succ": 0.1,
  "pareto_a": 1.5,
  "phi": 0.08,
  "pub_bias_visible": 0.15,
  "q_decay": 0.03,
  "r_outside": 0.04,
  "recycle": 0.5,
  "rep_decay": 0.008333,
  "sig_w": 0.05,
  "spend_rate": 0.003,
  "spill": 0.25,
  "takeup_in": 1.0,
  "takeup_out": 0.82,
  "tau": 0.03,
  "theta": 1.1,
  "uplift_K": 0.05,
  "uplift_S": 0.3,
  "w_dep": 0.3,
  "w_fail": 0.25,
  "w_gov": 0.4,
  "w_rep": 0.2,
  "w_route": 0.1,
  "waste_cap": 0.3,
  "waste_floor": 0.05
 },
 "registered": "2026-07-09",
 "scenarios": {
  "baseline_s11": {
   "K_eden_final": 373330.271772,
   "K_out_final": 114425.577924,
   "S_final": 0.85,
   "firm_catchup_ratio": 0.999998,
   "t0_data_closure": 0.0,
   "t0_share_sum_dev": 0.0,
   "t1_firm": 1.138925,
   "t1_gov": 2.155855,
   "t1_influence": 2.719303,
   "t1_science": 1.550705,
   "t2_disc_adopted_yr20": 15.192365,
   "t2_disc_never_yr20": 8.025125,
   "t2_ratio_yr20": 1.8931,
   "t3_cv_never": 0.681197,
   "t3_cv_pioneer": 0.372672,
   "t3_debt_service_share_out": 0.188202,
   "t3_self_funded_share": 0.822593,
   "t3_self_funded_share_yr15_cum": 0.282091,
   "t3_self_funded_share_yr15_flow": 0.732184,
   "t4_costpt_early_yr15": 1.01,
   "t4_costpt_never_yr15": 1.365854,
   "t4_cum_save_early_pc": 193.246372,
   "t4_cum_save_late_pc": 118.799124,
   "t4_late_catchup_months": 22.5,
   "t4_quality_gap_yr50": 0.133551,
   "t4_ratio_yr15": 0.739464,
   "t4_v64_saving_check": 0.260536,
   "t5_catchup_majority": 0.763441,
   "t5_catchup_majority_lastjoiner": 0.816307,
   "t5_catchup_majority_m378_legacy": 0.889984,
   "t5_catchup_reach80_month": 285.0,
   "t5_infl_pc_final": {
    "early": 1.017381,
    "laggard": 0.955968,
    "majority": 1.006881,
    "pioneer": 1.02922
   },
   "t5_infl_pc_yr20": {
    "early": 1.15102,
    "laggard": 0.617806,
    "majority": 0.915125,
    "pioneer": 1.245572
   },
   "t5_pioneer_agg_share_final": 0.121085,
   "t5_pioneer_decade45_declining": true,
   "t5_pioneer_pop_share": 0.117647,
   "t5_wealthy_declining": true,
   "t5_wealthy_prem_final": 0.621634,
   "t5_wealthy_prem_yr20": 1.16735,
   "t5_wealthy_route_share_final": 0.002211,
   "t6_K_diff": {
    "20": 23407.482434,
    "30": 76035.10125,
    "40": 161523.920211,
    "50": 258904.693849
   },
   "t6_Q_diff": {
    "20": 0.182043,
    "30": 0.285068,
    "40": 0.395439,
    "50": 0.477498
   },
   "t6_income_diff": {
    "20": 0.447454,
    "30": 0.563211,
    "40": 0.631812,
    "50": 0.702461
   },
   "t6_income_ratio": {
    "20": 1.367013,
    "30": 1.418206,
    "40": 1.42471,
    "50": 1.427478
   },
   "t6_monotone": true,
   "t7_S_path": {
    "10": 0.395833,
    "15": 0.645833,
    "20": 0.715556,
    "30": 0.848889,
    "40": 0.85,
    "5": 0.176667,
    "50": 0.85
   },
   "t7_S_yr30": 0.848889,
   "wealth_inside_final_vs_cf": 0.084097
  },
  "baseline_s7": {
   "K_eden_final": 367857.536314,
   "K_out_final": 112747.574754,
   "S_final": 0.85,
   "firm_catchup_ratio": 1.000001,
   "t0_data_closure": 0.0,
   "t0_share_sum_dev": 0.0,
   "t1_firm": 1.146374,
   "t1_gov": 2.059699,
   "t1_influence": 2.711157,
   "t1_science": 1.49977,
   "t2_disc_adopted_yr20": 14.77347,
   "t2_disc_never_yr20": 7.676048,
   "t2_ratio_yr20": 1.924619,
   "t3_cv_never": 0.712877,
   "t3_cv_pioneer": 0.349151,
   "t3_debt_service_share_out": 0.18906,
   "t3_self_funded_share": 0.82217,
   "t3_self_funded_share_yr15_cum": 0.284682,
   "t3_self_funded_share_yr15_flow": 0.735007,
   "t4_costpt_early_yr15": 1.01,
   "t4_costpt_never_yr15": 1.365854,
   "t4_cum_save_early_pc": 193.411822,
   "t4_cum_save_late_pc": 110.913871,
   "t4_late_catchup_months": 22.625,
   "t4_quality_gap_yr50": 0.135353,
   "t4_ratio_yr15": 0.739464,
   "t4_v64_saving_check": 0.260536,
   "t5_catchup_majority": 0.775205,
   "t5_catchup_majority_lastjoiner": 0.825084,
   "t5_catchup_majority_m378_legacy": 0.895334,
   "t5_catchup_reach80_month": 278.0,
   "t5_infl_pc_final": {
    "early": 1.02265,
    "laggard": 0.949749,
    "majority": 1.0093,
    "pioneer": 1.022651
   },
   "t5_infl_pc_yr20": {
    "early": 1.145541,
    "laggard": 0.616612,
    "majority": 0.92165,
    "pioneer": 1.234475
   },
   "t5_pioneer_agg_share_final": 0.120312,
   "t5_pioneer_decade45_declining": true,
   "t5_pioneer_pop_share": 0.117647,
   "t5_wealthy_declining": true,
   "t5_wealthy_prem_final": 0.802169,
   "t5_wealthy_prem_yr20": 1.204154,
   "t5_wealthy_route_share_final": 0.004006,
   "t6_K_diff": {
    "20": 22600.922982,
    "30": 74240.721668,
    "40": 158676.428422,
    "50": 255109.961559
   },
   "t6_Q_diff": {
    "20": 0.17211,
    "30": 0.277978,
    "40": 0.390513,
    "50": 0.47385
   },
   "t6_income_diff": {
    "20": 0.447264,
    "30": 0.563199,
    "40": 0.63178,
    "50": 0.702461
   },
   "t6_income_ratio": {
    "20": 1.366857,
    "30": 1.418197,
    "40": 1.424689,
    "50": 1.427478
   },
   "t6_monotone": true,
   "t7_S_path": {
    "10": 0.395833,
    "15": 0.645833,
    "20": 0.715556,
    "30": 0.848889,
    "40": 0.85,
    "5": 0.176667,
    "50": 0.85
   },
   "t7_S_yr30": 0.848889,
   "wealth_inside_final_vs_cf": 0.088569
  },
  "endogenous_s11": {
   "t7_S_path": {
    "10": 0.603508,
    "15": 0.833649,
    "20": 0.849226,
    "30": 0.849998,
    "40": 0.85,
    "5": 0.126402,
    "50": 0.85
   },
   "t7_S_yr30": 0.849998
  },
  "endogenous_s7": {
   "t7_S_path": {
    "10": 0.603205,
    "15": 0.833619,
    "20": 0.849225,
    "30": 0.849998,
    "40": 0.85,
    "5": 0.126332,
    "50": 0.85
   },
   "t7_S_yr30": 0.849998
  },
  "influence_alt_weights": {
   "t5_catchup_majority": 0.771786,
   "t5_infl_pc_yr20": {
    "early": 1.147142,
    "laggard": 0.614945,
    "majority": 0.919917,
    "pioneer": 1.238431
   },
   "t5_pioneer_agg_share_final": 0.120485,
   "t5_wealthy_prem_final": 1.255422
  },
  "lockin_worst": {
   "firm_catchup_ratio": 1.001407,
   "t5_catchup_majority": 0.775205,
   "t5_pioneer_agg_share_final": 0.120312
  },
  "t2_yr20": {
   "ablation_AB": 1.139047,
   "ablation_AB_s11": 1.1141,
   "ablation_A_failpay0": 1.369289,
   "ablation_B_registry_off": 1.420616,
   "baseline_s11": 1.8931,
   "baseline_s7": 1.924619,
   "outside_boost_1p5": 1.453787
  },
  "wealth_scale_robustness": {
   "x0.5": {
    "declining": true,
    "prem_final": 0.601084,
    "prem_yr20": 0.802077
   },
   "x2.0": {
    "declining": true,
    "prem_final": 1.204337,
    "prem_yr20": 2.008308
   }
  }
 },
 "seeds": [
  7,
  11
 ],
 "spec": "v22 SPEC - Adoption Timing (registered).md",
 "sweeps": {
  "pub_bias_visible": {
   "0.05": 1.982346,
   "0.15": 1.924619,
   "0.3": 1.845334
  },
  "w_fail": {
   "0.1": 1.5402,
   "0.25": 1.924619,
   "0.5": 2.838377
  },
  "waste_cap": {
   "0.15": 1.718405,
   "0.3": 1.924619,
   "0.45": 2.204532
  }
 },
 "verdict_summary": {
  "T0": "PASS",
  "T1": "PASS",
  "T2": "PASS",
  "T3": "PASS",
  "T4": "PASS",
  "T5": "FAIL",
  "T6": "PASS",
  "T7": "PASS"
 }
}