{ "spec": "v16 SPEC - Regime-Shift Envelope (registered).md", "run_date": "2026-07-09", "n_points_EA": 32, "dials": [ "sw_arpu", "c_arpu", "sv_rate", "gov_pay_frac_rec", "skip_p", "fed_carry_yr", "wage_med_hr", "gov_admin", "fed_stepup_lag" ], "bars": { "L1_frac_hold_lag_le6": 1.0, "L1_n": 38, "L1_pass": true, "L1_bracket_lag_gt6_breaches": 0, "L1_bracket_n": 26, "L1_bracket_as_registered": false, "L2_frac_hold_lag_le6": 0.47368421052631576, "L2_n": 38, "L2_pass": false, "J2_worst_points": [ { "p10_min": 0.7108133604433128, "point": 5, "seed": 11 }, { "p10_min": 0.7301036904015221, "point": 5, "seed": 7 }, { "p10_min": 0.7348440353389719, "point": 9, "seed": 11 }, { "p10_min": 0.7713090142523398, "point": 0, "seed": 11 }, { "p10_min": 0.7761557125999612, "point": 9, "seed": 7 } ], "L3_contain_pass": true, "L3_cartel_pass": true, "L4_pass": true }, "E_B": { "n": 400, "contain_100pct": true, "cartel_ge_1_over_kappa_100pct": true, "singlepass_leak_fraction": 0.0775, "worst_wf_max_minus_kappa": 6.938893903907228e-18, "min_cartel_x_kappa": 2.0228787084918864, "rows_sample": [ { "kappa": 0.020233090501693918, "alpha": 0.6289818716942217, "sigma": 1.02165935532465, "whale": 0.21123833170232098, "N": 2000, "seed": 7, "wf_max": 0.020233090501693918, "sp_max": 0.02040212851060438, "cartel": 501, "contain": 1.0, "cartel_ok": true }, { "kappa": 0.020233090501693918, "alpha": 0.6289818716942217, "sigma": 1.02165935532465, "whale": 0.21123833170232098, "N": 2000, "seed": 11, "wf_max": 0.020233090501693918, "sp_max": 0.020401921413161276, "cartel": 510, "contain": 1.0, "cartel_ok": true }, { "kappa": 0.03725403507739112, "alpha": 0.673089891723276, "sigma": 1.8973368713279328, "whale": 0.40680603519236513, "N": 2000, "seed": 7, "wf_max": 0.037254035077391126, "sp_max": 0.03912981882578319, "cartel": 186, "contain": 1.0, "cartel_ok": true }, { "kappa": 0.03725403507739112, "alpha": 0.673089891723276, "sigma": 1.8973368713279328, "whale": 0.40680603519236513, "N": 2000, "seed": 11, "wf_max": 0.037254035077391126, "sp_max": 0.03920475441043306, "cartel": 191, "contain": 1.0, "cartel_ok": true }, { "kappa": 0.022948912164268045, "alpha": 0.5770833970376742, "sigma": 1.8468666037321293, "whale": 0.2591183504435115, "N": 10000, "seed": 7, "wf_max": 0.016597973503053167, "sp_max": 0.016597973503053167, "cartel": 1393, "contain": 1.0, "cartel_ok": true }, { "kappa": 0.022948912164268045, "alpha": 0.5770833970376742, "sigma": 1.8468666037321293, "whale": 0.2591183504435115, "N": 10000, "seed": 11, "wf_max": 0.016548847271920585, "sp_max": 0.016548847271920585, "cartel": 1403, "contain": 1.0, "cartel_ok": true } ] }, "E_C": { "grid": { "5000": { "5": 1.2586145607455392e-39, "10": 2.1267837826001617e-20, "15": 2.8001624391829088e-11, "20": 4.425769280319532e-06, "25": 0.004417874813468621, "28": 0.05320472006038286, "30": 0.16644762650362904, "33": 0.4867788510878096, "s_star_first_over_1pct": 28 }, "20000": { "5": 3.3739270743586655e-37, "10": 1.1813994904097534e-19, "15": 5.7745687171210476e-11, "20": 5.873364186540205e-06, "25": 0.004827898251013741, "28": 0.05535850233575525, "30": 0.1687926096159218, "33": 0.4865053852359404, "s_star_first_over_1pct": 28 }, "50000": { "5": 9.026152165299486e-37, "10": 1.661739181883711e-19, "15": 6.662859454298609e-11, "20": 6.203713499858869e-06, "25": 0.004911931457271195, "28": 0.05571346443377895, "30": 0.169409534521463, "33": 0.486451187569842, "s_star_first_over_1pct": 28 } }, "le_1pct_for_s_le_25_all_H": true }, "isolation": { "note": "committed July 11, 2026 (Verification v4, D2): the F2 slices previously quoted from uncommitted probes; all dials central, storm scenario, seeds 7+11, same build_params path as the sweep", "gov_pay_slices": { "0.60": { "s7": { "months_below": 0, "max_consec": 0, "p10_min42": 1.0883966277215216, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.6, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 }, "s11": { "months_below": 0, "max_consec": 0, "p10_min42": 1.0616956910777433, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.6, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 } }, "0.50": { "s7": { "months_below": 1, "max_consec": 1, "p10_min42": 0.993934939656157, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.5, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 }, "s11": { "months_below": 6, "max_consec": 5, "p10_min42": 0.9823373973574385, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.5, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 } }, "0.45": { "s7": { "months_below": 11, "max_consec": 5, "p10_min42": 0.9495772895814902, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.44999999999999996, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 }, "s11": { "months_below": 12, "max_consec": 7, "p10_min42": 0.9337023010834445, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.44999999999999996, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 } }, "0.35": { "s7": { "months_below": 13, "max_consec": 8, "p10_min42": 0.8687918437537763, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.35000000000000003, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 }, "s11": { "months_below": 14, "max_consec": 8, "p10_min42": 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caveat). Engines run AS COMMITTED (imported run()/anchors, not reimplemented). Headlines = the committed RESULTS conclusions; frac_hold = fraction of the envelope in which each holds; flips are findings.", "n_points": 32, "seeds_fixed": [ 7, 11 ], "v12_aggregator": { "dials": [ "bond", "take", "d", "m", "fee_claw_months", "audit_cost", "V", "market_cap_share" ], "headlines": { "R1_audit_deters_qstar_le5pct": { "claim": "break-even audit rate q* exists and <= 5%", "baseline_holds": true, "n": 32, "n_hold": 32, "frac_hold": 1.0, "robust": true, "val_min": 0.004146416116556473, "val_max": 0.010328664424731297, "flip_example": null }, "R2_honest_audit_cost_le0p5pct": { "claim": "honest audit cost <= 0.5% of gross mint", "baseline_holds": true, "n": 32, "n_hold": 32, "frac_hold": 1.0, "robust": true, "val_min": 5.00669671873563e-05, "val_max": 0.00014870955457235057, "flip_example": null }, "R3_vesting_loadbearing_bracket": { "claim": "corner V0 profitable AND V168 deterred (vesting load-bearing)", "baseline_holds": true, "n": 32, "n_hold": 32, "frac_hold": 1.0, "robust": true, "val_min": 0.0, "val_max": 0.0, "flip_example": null }, "R4_blast_radius_le0p5pct": { "claim": "ring blast radius <= 0.5% of annual mint", "baseline_holds": true, "n": 32, "n_hold": 32, "frac_hold": 1.0, "robust": true, "val_min": 1.2061495028784276e-05, "val_max": 0.0001880916707803057, "flip_example": null } }, "points": [ { "mults": { "bond": 0.8359812974694728, "take": 0.5234079769124202, "d": 0.5618733402311828, "m": 0.6186651632373193, "fee_claw_months": 0.838255848036328, "audit_cost": 1.1093673392025032, "V": 0.5159642535744671, "market_cap_share": 0.9547236044286879 }, "R1_qstar": 0.005999956380934641, "R1_pass": true, "R2_frac": 0.00011093673392025032, "R2_pass": true, "R3_V0_profit": 102010.41624739341, "R3_V168_profit": 0.0, "R3_bracket_pass": true, "R4_blast_frac": 7.137911756161792e-05, "R4_pass": true, "R0_pass": true, "R5_pass": true }, { "mults": { "bond": 0.7075324621835465, "take": 0.770713282678444, "d": 1.4236919164187616, "m": 1.2459419214920595, 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"delta": 0.8866837815186898, "redemption_pm": 0.7435629814434698, "reserve0": 0.6604593084820994, "lev_shape": 1.3447632138164027, "lev_scale": 0.8064460120547042, "lev_cap": 1.3579113603999193 }, "X1_ratio": 0.7325362383558688, "X1_discount": true, "X2_composed": 0.02687148299959331, "X2_past_gate": true, "X3_delivery_min": 1.0, "X3_drain_mo": 4.007001748113955, "X3_pass": true, "X4_composed_under_cap": 0.006391747948279456, "X4_pass": true } ] } }, "g_star_densification": { "note": "Backlog #9.2: densifies the g* austerity floor to a 0.01 grid on the committed v6.8 run_fed, v16 storm + escrow E=6, both seeds, same build_params route as the sweep and the F2 isolation slices. Refines (not duplicates) v31's 0.05 grid and its (0.50,0.55] bracket.", "criterion": "sustained breach = max_consec >= 3 (post-month-42), the program criterion", "floors": [ 0.45, 0.46, 0.47, 0.48, 0.49, 0.5, 0.51, 0.52, 0.53, 0.54, 0.55, 0.56, 0.57, 0.58, 0.59, 0.6 ], "cells": { "0.45": { "s7": { "months_below": 11, "max_consec": 5, "p10_min42": 0.9495772895814902, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.44999999999999996, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 }, "s11": { "months_below": 12, "max_consec": 7, "p10_min42": 0.9337023010834445, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.44999999999999996, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 } }, "0.46": { "s7": { "months_below": 10, "max_consec": 5, "p10_min42": 0.9620662860251856, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.46, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 }, "s11": { "months_below": 11, "max_consec": 6, "p10_min42": 0.9436528312248528, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.46, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 } }, "0.47": { "s7": { "months_below": 7, "max_consec": 4, "p10_min42": 0.9722350723641381, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.47, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 }, "s11": { "months_below": 11, "max_consec": 6, "p10_min42": 0.954818878427823, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.47, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 } }, "0.48": { "s7": { "months_below": 5, "max_consec": 3, "p10_min42": 0.9812012659754841, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.48, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 }, "s11": { "months_below": 10, "max_consec": 5, "p10_min42": 0.9614312463548217, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.48, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 } }, "0.49": { "s7": { "months_below": 3, "max_consec": 2, "p10_min42": 0.9858550070084409, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.49, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 }, "s11": { "months_below": 8, "max_consec": 5, "p10_min42": 0.9703644869020968, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.49, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 } }, "0.50": { "s7": { "months_below": 1, "max_consec": 1, "p10_min42": 0.993934939656157, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.5, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 }, "s11": { "months_below": 6, "max_consec": 5, "p10_min42": 0.9823373973574385, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.5, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 } }, "0.51": { "s7": { "months_below": 0, "max_consec": 0, "p10_min42": 1.0057975022300047, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.51, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 }, "s11": { "months_below": 5, "max_consec": 3, "p10_min42": 0.9887570877385559, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.51, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 } }, "0.52": { "s7": { "months_below": 0, "max_consec": 0, "p10_min42": 1.0127565664744937, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.52, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 }, "s11": { "months_below": 2, "max_consec": 2, "p10_min42": 0.9969151050116326, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.52, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 } }, "0.53": { "s7": { "months_below": 0, "max_consec": 0, "p10_min42": 1.0234614766238395, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.53, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 }, "s11": { "months_below": 0, "max_consec": 0, "p10_min42": 1.008714103001365, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.53, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 } }, "0.54": { "s7": { "months_below": 0, "max_consec": 0, "p10_min42": 1.0368433084555884, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.54, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 }, "s11": { "months_below": 0, "max_consec": 0, "p10_min42": 1.022334662536077, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.54, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 } }, "0.55": { "s7": { "months_below": 0, "max_consec": 0, "p10_min42": 1.0406444481280204, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.55, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 }, "s11": { "months_below": 0, "max_consec": 0, "p10_min42": 1.0312023450326144, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.55, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 } }, "0.56": { "s7": { "months_below": 0, "max_consec": 0, "p10_min42": 1.0545915467023659, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.56, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 }, "s11": { "months_below": 0, "max_consec": 0, "p10_min42": 1.0207799436945006, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.56, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 } }, "0.57": { "s7": { "months_below": 0, "max_consec": 0, "p10_min42": 1.0575091957413305, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.57, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 }, "s11": { "months_below": 0, "max_consec": 0, "p10_min42": 1.0295587820503975, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.57, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 } }, "0.58": { "s7": { "months_below": 0, "max_consec": 0, "p10_min42": 1.0734979625412535, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.58, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 }, "s11": { "months_below": 0, "max_consec": 0, "p10_min42": 1.038637052728121, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.58, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 } }, "0.59": { "s7": { "months_below": 0, "max_consec": 0, "p10_min42": 1.0795615607347857, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.59, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 }, "s11": { "months_below": 0, "max_consec": 0, "p10_min42": 1.0521689878920766, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.59, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 } }, "0.60": { "s7": { "months_below": 0, "max_consec": 0, "p10_min42": 1.0883966277215216, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.6, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 }, "s11": { "months_below": 0, "max_consec": 0, "p10_min42": 1.0616956910777433, "printed": 0.0, "gov_pay_frac_rec_applied": 0.6, "sw_arpu_applied": 900.0 } } }, "per_seed": { "s7": { "highest_floor_sustained_breach": 0.48, "lowest_floor_no_sustained_breach": 0.49, "lowest_floor_zero_months_below": 0.51 }, "s11": { "highest_floor_sustained_breach": 0.51, "lowest_floor_no_sustained_breach": 0.52, "lowest_floor_zero_months_below": 0.53 } }, "g_star_bracket_3consec": { "lower_open_highest_floor_still_breaching_either_seed": 0.51, "upper_closed_lowest_floor_holding_both_seeds": 0.52, "zero_months_below_both_seeds_from": 0.53, "binding_seed": "s11" }, "reconciliation_with_v31": { "v31_grid": [ 0.45, 0.5, 0.55, 0.6 ], "v31_bracket_3consec": "(0.50, 0.55]", "v31_recommendation": ">= 0.60", "v16_densified_bracket_3consec": "(0.51, 0.52]", "shared_anchor_points_reproduce": { "0.50": { "s7": { "months_below": 1, "max_consec": 1 }, "s11": { "months_below": 6, "max_consec": 5 } }, "0.55": { "s7": { "months_below": 0, "max_consec": 0 }, "s11": { "months_below": 0, "max_consec": 0 } }, "0.60": { "s7": { "months_below": 0, "max_consec": 0 }, "s11": { "months_below": 0, "max_consec": 0 } } }, "note": "0.01-spaced floors reproduce v31's 0.50 and 0.55 cells exactly (same committed path/storm/E6), refining the sustained-breach edge from v31's (0.50,0.55] to (0.51,0.52] on the binding seed 11; full delivery (zero months below, both seeds) needs g >= 0.53. v31's >= 0.60 recommendation stands with ~8-9 hundredths of margin over the measured edge. max_consec and months_below are monotone in the floor (v31 AB1 holds on the finer grid); the p10 trough has a single <=0.011 non-monotone wiggle at 0.55->0.56 on seed 11, below the criterion and not a breach." } }, "wtp_fail_tier_sensitivity": { "note": "Backlog #9.3 / red-team A9: WTP is the program's single hinge; the registered field experiment sets FAIL bars an order of magnitude below the anchors. Here the three WTP anchors (data $600/contributor-yr, code $900, machine-pay $240/agent-yr) are divided jointly by 5 ($120-world) and 10 ($60-world, the A9 FAIL tier) and run through the committed v6.8 run_fed, J1-core peace + J2-core storm, both seeds. Reports which committed headlines break vs survive.", "anchors": { "data_arpu_usd_yr": 600.0, "code_sw_arpu": 900.0, "machine_c_arpu": 240.0 }, "tiers": { "anchor": 1.0, "tier_120": 0.2, "fail_60": 0.1 }, "cells": { "peace_anchor_s7": { "months_below": 0, "max_consec": 0, "p10_min42": 1.3597166764734732, "printed": 0.0, "payr_min42": 0.8542705295109115, "endog_coverage_slice_over_oblig": 0.13230930161897794, "med_builder_usd_tail": 426.65222543624617, "share_builder_ge200_tail": 0.8854039788875356, "n_builders_tail": 1642.0, "trad_per_enrollee_mo": 494.8812953028296, "worst_member_cost_ratio_vs_trad": 0.7850513293270869 }, "peace_anchor_s11": { "months_below": 0, "max_consec": 0, "p10_min42": 1.3514867085565947, "printed": 0.0, "payr_min42": 0.8682811545000754, "endog_coverage_slice_over_oblig": 0.13237747540636416, "med_builder_usd_tail": 418.6164876762344, "share_builder_ge200_tail": 0.896168938455184, "n_builders_tail": 1614.0, "trad_per_enrollee_mo": 501.2151451855141, "worst_member_cost_ratio_vs_trad": 0.784724702756031 }, "peace_tier_120_s7": { "months_below": 0, "max_consec": 0, "p10_min42": 1.3669621631804256, "printed": 0.0, "payr_min42": 0.8889056786392922, "endog_coverage_slice_over_oblig": 0.08086388790190506, "med_builder_usd_tail": 82.61269582811589, "share_builder_ge200_tail": 0.10480105562322371, "n_builders_tail": 1642.0, "trad_per_enrollee_mo": 528.7425775765303, "worst_member_cost_ratio_vs_trad": 0.7852377392837522 }, "peace_tier_120_s11": { "months_below": 0, "max_consec": 0, "p10_min42": 1.33572235451329, "printed": 0.0, "payr_min42": 0.8733238634725299, "endog_coverage_slice_over_oblig": 0.08063508328976325, "med_builder_usd_tail": 80.66483156002946, "share_builder_ge200_tail": 0.100444582299421, "n_builders_tail": 1612.0, "trad_per_enrollee_mo": 534.3167887334896, "worst_member_cost_ratio_vs_trad": 0.7849657527994196 }, "peace_fail_60_s7": { "months_below": 0, "max_consec": 0, "p10_min42": 1.2215683695117745, "printed": 0.0, "payr_min42": 0.6879263022335426, "endog_coverage_slice_over_oblig": 0.07172832070856511, "med_builder_usd_tail": 45.30022058674609, "share_builder_ge200_tail": 0.02765935850588713, "n_builders_tail": 1642.0, "trad_per_enrollee_mo": 535.1896827789294, "worst_member_cost_ratio_vs_trad": 0.7849408511914662 }, "peace_fail_60_s11": { "months_below": 0, "max_consec": 0, "p10_min42": 1.1938650424887225, "printed": 0.0, "payr_min42": 0.6865999355774735, "endog_coverage_slice_over_oblig": 0.07161962400261032, "med_builder_usd_tail": 45.51385089666525, "share_builder_ge200_tail": 0.019310202395704256, "n_builders_tail": 1614.0, "trad_per_enrollee_mo": 540.7438108248001, "worst_member_cost_ratio_vs_trad": 0.7846202938402745 }, "storm_anchor_s7": { "months_below": 0, "max_consec": 0, "p10_min42": 1.0883966277215216, "printed": 0.0, "payr_min42": 0.6407266636870556, "endog_coverage_slice_over_oblig": 0.07319204161904971, "med_builder_usd_tail": 426.0685522404314, "share_builder_ge200_tail": 0.8840336987413724, "n_builders_tail": 1642.0, "trad_per_enrollee_mo": 529.1117053299604, "worst_member_cost_ratio_vs_trad": 0.9140781547111119 }, "storm_anchor_s11": { "months_below": 0, "max_consec": 0, "p10_min42": 1.0616956910777433, "printed": 0.0, "payr_min42": 0.6108872149857608, "endog_coverage_slice_over_oblig": 0.07267793033072668, "med_builder_usd_tail": 418.44943776949907, "share_builder_ge200_tail": 0.895704254440314, "n_builders_tail": 1614.0, "trad_per_enrollee_mo": 532.4562441474429, "worst_member_cost_ratio_vs_trad": 0.8690364795216443 }, "storm_tier_120_s7": { "months_below": 0, "max_consec": 0, "p10_min42": 1.0260322346892488, "printed": 0.0, "payr_min42": 0.614815287440707, "endog_coverage_slice_over_oblig": 0.03431141698238518, "med_builder_usd_tail": 82.43821137728096, "share_builder_ge200_tail": 0.10459805115712545, "n_builders_tail": 1642.0, "trad_per_enrollee_mo": 562.0742314868452, "worst_member_cost_ratio_vs_trad": 0.9148627673081758 }, "storm_tier_120_s11": { "months_below": 0, "max_consec": 0, "p10_min42": 1.011961826685749, "printed": 0.0, "payr_min42": 0.6017951388126729, "endog_coverage_slice_over_oblig": 0.03536569873306749, "med_builder_usd_tail": 80.63403579817522, "share_builder_ge200_tail": 0.10034119106699751, "n_builders_tail": 1612.0, "trad_per_enrollee_mo": 563.9342343472829, "worst_member_cost_ratio_vs_trad": 0.8700844076715682 }, "storm_fail_60_s7": { "months_below": 0, "max_consec": 0, "p10_min42": 1.0178487729737815, "printed": 0.0, "payr_min42": 0.6110683208061398, "endog_coverage_slice_over_oblig": 0.02597745380750577, "med_builder_usd_tail": 45.30128672955732, "share_builder_ge200_tail": 0.027101096224116928, "n_builders_tail": 1642.0, "trad_per_enrollee_mo": 568.5944482319804, "worst_member_cost_ratio_vs_trad": 0.9149836084694953 }, "storm_fail_60_s11": { "months_below": 0, "max_consec": 0, "p10_min42": 1.008005646093162, "printed": 0.0, "payr_min42": 0.6055485656982446, "endog_coverage_slice_over_oblig": 0.02693794893306214, "med_builder_usd_tail": 45.514387562652566, "share_builder_ge200_tail": 0.019310202395704256, "n_builders_tail": 1614.0, "trad_per_enrollee_mo": 570.4911790125559, "worst_member_cost_ratio_vs_trad": 0.8697972685486761 } }, "verdicts": { "floor_delivery": { "claim": "sponsor-funded essentials floor keeps delivering (0 months below, no printing)", "verdict": "SURVIVES", "detail": "floor delivery is sponsor-backed, not WTP-backed, so it holds at the $60-world in peace and storm, both seeds -- BUT the storm p10 trough thins to ~1.01 (from 1.06-1.09) and peace payr falls 0.85->0.69: the margin WTP was buying via slice/reserve bridging evaporates", "storm_trough_anchor_vs_fail": [ 1.0616956910777433, 1.008005646093162 ] }, "floor_self_funding": { "claim": "endogenous slice covers floor obligations (could wean off the sponsor)", "verdict": "ALREADY-WEAK-AT-ANCHOR; DEEPENS", "detail": "endogenous coverage (slice/obligations) is only ~0.13 peace / ~0.07 storm at anchor and roughly halves to ~0.07 / ~0.03 at the $60-world: the floor was never self-funding and the $60-world pushes any self-funding horizon 'years to the right' (A9), deepening sponsor dependence", "coverage_peace_anchor_vs_fail": [ 0.13230930161897794, 0.07161962400261032 ] }, "sponsor_coverage": { "claim": "sponsoring the floor stays cheaper than traditional welfare (ratio <= 0.85)", "verdict": "SURVIVES", "detail": "the member cost-per-enrollee vs traditional-welfare ratio is WTP-invariant (moves <0.01 from anchor to $60-world) because both the EDEN sponsor cost and the welfare benchmark scale with the same obligation; clears 0.85 in peace at every tier (~0.785) and sits ~0.87-0.91 in storm at every tier (a storm effect, not a WTP effect)", "ratio_peace_anchor_vs_fail": [ 0.7850513293270869, 0.7849408511914662 ] }, "builder_viability": { "claim": "builders earn a living (>= 20% of builders clear the $200/mo jobs line)", "verdict": "BREAKS", "detail": "median builder income collapses ~10x ($420->$45) and the share of builders clearing $200/mo falls from ~0.89 to ~0.02-0.03 at the $60-world -- the builder economy thins to non-viability, exactly the A9 prediction", "share_ge200_anchor_vs_fail": [ 0.8840336987413724, 0.02765935850588713 ] } } } }