{
  "I0_regression": {
    "cells_match": true,
    "min_bond_match": true,
    "PASS": true
  },
  "I1_quarantine": {
    "cells": {
      "s=10%|p_live=0.05": {
        "window_months": 3.3,
        "fraud_pct_of_issuance": 0.23,
        "pool_strain_vs_headroom": "1.3% vs 10.0%",
        "cohort_essentials_delivery": 1.0,
        "attacker_take_F_units": 3667.0,
        "bound_F_units": 73333.0,
        "within_bound": true,
        "PASS": true
      },
      "s=10%|p_live=0.2": {
        "window_months": 3.3,
        "fraud_pct_of_issuance": 0.92,
        "pool_strain_vs_headroom": "5.1% vs 10.0%",
        "cohort_essentials_delivery": 1.0,
        "attacker_take_F_units": 14667.0,
        "bound_F_units": 73333.0,
        "within_bound": true,
        "PASS": true
      },
      "s=15%|p_live=0.05": {
        "window_months": 5.0,
        "fraud_pct_of_issuance": 0.34,
        "pool_strain_vs_headroom": "1.9% vs 10.0%",
        "cohort_essentials_delivery": 1.0,
        "attacker_take_F_units": 8250.0,
        "bound_F_units": 165000.0,
        "within_bound": true,
        "PASS": true
      },
      "s=15%|p_live=0.2": {
        "window_months": 5.0,
        "fraud_pct_of_issuance": 1.37,
        "pool_strain_vs_headroom": "7.6% vs 10.0%",
        "cohort_essentials_delivery": 1.0,
        "attacker_take_F_units": 33000.0,
        "bound_F_units": 165000.0,
        "within_bound": true,
        "PASS": true
      },
      "s=30%|p_live=0.05": {
        "window_months": 10.0,
        "fraud_pct_of_issuance": 0.69,
        "pool_strain_vs_headroom": "3.8% vs 10.0%",
        "cohort_essentials_delivery": 1.0,
        "attacker_take_F_units": 33000.0,
        "bound_F_units": 660000.0,
        "within_bound": true,
        "PASS": true
      },
      "s=30%|p_live=0.2": {
        "window_months": 10.0,
        "fraud_pct_of_issuance": 2.75,
        "pool_strain_vs_headroom": "15.3% vs 10.0%",
        "cohort_essentials_delivery": 0.655,
        "attacker_take_F_units": 132000.0,
        "bound_F_units": 660000.0,
        "within_bound": true,
        "PASS": false
      }
    },
    "registered_expectation_cap_is_load_bearing": true,
    "bars": "delivery>=1.0 AND fraud<2% AND take<=bound; expect FAIL at s=30,p=0.2"
  },
  "I2_recovery_race": {
    "design": {
      "seed7": {
        "B=1x_bond": {
          "overall_win_pct": 100.0,
          "thin_web_decile_win_pct": 100.0,
          "zero_tenure_win_pct": 100.0
        },
        "B=3x_bond": {
          "overall_win_pct": 100.0,
          "thin_web_decile_win_pct": 100.0,
          "zero_tenure_win_pct": 100.0
        },
        "B=10x_bond": {
          "overall_win_pct": 100.0,
          "thin_web_decile_win_pct": 100.0,
          "zero_tenure_win_pct": 100.0
        }
      },
      "seed11": {
        "B=1x_bond": {
          "overall_win_pct": 100.0,
          "thin_web_decile_win_pct": 100.0,
          "zero_tenure_win_pct": 100.0
        },
        "B=3x_bond": {
          "overall_win_pct": 100.0,
          "thin_web_decile_win_pct": 100.0,
          "zero_tenure_win_pct": 100.0
        },
        "B=10x_bond": {
          "overall_win_pct": 100.0,
          "thin_web_decile_win_pct": 100.0,
          "zero_tenure_win_pct": 100.0
        }
      }
    },
    "guardian_off_ablation": {
      "seed7": {
        "B=1x_bond": {
          "overall_win_pct": 100.0,
          "thin_web_decile_win_pct": 100.0,
          "zero_tenure_win_pct": 100.0
        },
        "B=3x_bond": {
          "overall_win_pct": 100.0,
          "thin_web_decile_win_pct": 100.0,
          "zero_tenure_win_pct": 100.0
        },
        "B=10x_bond": {
          "overall_win_pct": 99.996,
          "thin_web_decile_win_pct": 99.965,
          "zero_tenure_win_pct": 99.88
        }
      },
      "seed11": {
        "B=1x_bond": {
          "overall_win_pct": 100.0,
          "thin_web_decile_win_pct": 100.0,
          "zero_tenure_win_pct": 100.0
        },
        "B=3x_bond": {
          "overall_win_pct": 100.0,
          "thin_web_decile_win_pct": 100.0,
          "zero_tenure_win_pct": 100.0
        },
        "B=10x_bond": {
          "overall_win_pct": 99.993,
          "thin_web_decile_win_pct": 99.93,
          "zero_tenure_win_pct": 99.74
        }
      }
    },
    "worst_overall_win_pct": 100.0,
    "worst_thin_decile_win_pct": 100.0,
    "bars": "overall>=99.9% and thin decile>=99% at B<=10x",
    "PASS": true,
    "note": "forgery ceiling 0.45 < body presence 0.5 encodes the keystone assumption: ceremony-grade liveness holds at these budgets"
  },
  "I3_weaponized_revocation": {
    "cells": {
      "r=5%|capacity=central": {
        "months_to_full_reanchor": 0.5,
        "pct_restored_within_12mo": 100.0,
        "time_below_floor_months": 0.0
      },
      "r=5%|capacity=half": {
        "months_to_full_reanchor": 1.0,
        "pct_restored_within_12mo": 100.0,
        "time_below_floor_months": 0.0
      },
      "r=20%|capacity=central": {
        "months_to_full_reanchor": 2.0,
        "pct_restored_within_12mo": 100.0,
        "time_below_floor_months": 0.0
      },
      "r=20%|capacity=half": {
        "months_to_full_reanchor": 4.0,
        "pct_restored_within_12mo": 100.0,
        "time_below_floor_months": 0.0
      },
      "r=50%|capacity=central": {
        "months_to_full_reanchor": 5.0,
        "pct_restored_within_12mo": 100.0,
        "time_below_floor_months": 0.0
      },
      "r=50%|capacity=half": {
        "months_to_full_reanchor": 10.0,
        "pct_restored_within_12mo": 100.0,
        "time_below_floor_months": 0.0
      }
    },
    "bar": ">=95% within 12mo at central capacity; floor never off",
    "PASS": true
  },
  "I4_rotation_overhead": {
    "sweep": {
      "T_rot=2y": {
        "annual_overhead_F": 0.011,
        "epoch_breach_prob": 0.095,
        "expected_blast_at_15pct_cap": 0.0143
      },
      "T_rot=5y": {
        "annual_overhead_F": 0.0044,
        "epoch_breach_prob": 0.221,
        "expected_blast_at_15pct_cap": 0.0332
      },
      "T_rot=10y": {
        "annual_overhead_F": 0.0022,
        "epoch_breach_prob": 0.393,
        "expected_blast_at_15pct_cap": 0.059
      }
    },
    "note": "measurement cell \u2014 cadence is a priced choice"
  },
  "anchors": {
    "N": 200000,
    "mean_income_x_ess": 2.402,
    "pool_pc": 0.432,
    "headroom": 0.1,
    "throughput_share_per_mo": 0.03
  },
  "gate14_numbers": {
    "max_cohort_share_passing_at_p20": "15%",
    "recovery_window_months_at_15pct": 5.0,
    "thin_web_win_pct": 100.0
  }
}